Houston Christian at UC San Diego (-6.5)

UC San Diego hosts Houston Christian on Saturday night, and while there’s a significant drop-off from last year, this is still a favorable spot. With Clint Allard maintaining the Eric Olen blueprint, the Tritons lean into deliberate pace, half-court structure, and disciplined pressure that grinds possessions. They don’t hunt early looks; they force long, slow trips, deny entries, and make opponents execute late in the clock. That’s precisely where Houston Christian is vulnerable—ball pressure can disrupt first actions, and late-clock creation is a challenge on the road.

UC San Diego’s edge is possession math: low turnover rate on offense, opportunistic takeaways on defense, and the composure to finish sets with clean shots or free throws. Even without last season’s ceiling, the floor remains sturdy when tempo, spacing, and decision-making are on script. Market note: there are still a few -6.5s available—worth scooping before consensus rises. Tritons to cover in a controlled, low-possession win.

Pick:
Houston Christian 64
UC San Diego 75