Duke at Connecticut

UConn catching +9.5 is a buy.

Duke has earned attention with a strong ACC run, but this spot asks a lot: a road favorite laying near double digits against an undefeated home team with real bite. Manny Diaz has stabilized the Blue Devils and they’ve won tight ones, but covering this number requires sustained separation against a disciplined, confident opponent that’s been excellent in its own building.

UConn has been sneaky good—especially at home, where they’re unbeaten. The Huskies are balanced, well-coached, and getting steady quarterback play that fits their identity: take what’s there, avoid the catastrophic mistake, and squeeze extra value from situational football. On both sides of the ball, they’ve shown a willingness to play to game script—lean on the run when they can, hit timely throws off play action when needed, and trust a defense that tackles and gets off the field on third down.

This matchup also carries classic “backdoor” dynamics. Duke’s offense can surge, but the style invites swings: if the Blue Devils lead late, UConn’s pace and efficiency are built to cover with a final possession. If Duke lags, the Huskies’ physicality and ball security shorten the game and increase the value of every point you’re holding.

Marketwise, -9.5 prices in a talent gap plus road variance that feels too rich for this cross-conference spot. UConn’s trench play, home comfort, and complementary approach make it hard to win here by margin. Add in the travel ask for Duke and the likelihood of a possession game deep into the fourth quarter, and the number becomes the story.

The pick: UConn +9.5 (play to +9). Sprinkle a small moneyline if you like plus-price darts, but the core position is the Huskies with the points.