College Football: Oklahoma at Alabama

Oklahoma at Alabama shifts into focus with the market trimming from -7 to -6. We released Oklahoma +7 yesterday and don’t expect that number to return; even so, +6 remains the right side. Our power ratings have these teams essentially even on a neutral, so the current spread is doing a lot of work for home field and brand weight. On the field, this profiles as a trench-and-explosives game: Oklahoma needs to stay balanced on early downs, keep the sticks ahead of schedule, and protect the ball against a physical front. Alabama’s path is compressing run lanes, forcing third-and-longs, and turning field position into red-zone chances.

Key levers: havoc rate on passing downs, explosive-play differential, and red-zone TD% (not field goals). Special teams matter, too—hidden yards on punts and kickoff returns could swing one score either way. If Oklahoma avoids the drive-killing sacks and wins first down, the underdog’s floor rises and an outright result stays live into the fourth quarter. Conversely, if Alabama stacks extra possessions through penalties drawn and short fields, brief separation is possible—but our numbers still point to a one-score finish. Grade it: Oklahoma +6 is playable and an outright win would not be shocking.

Pick:
Oklahoma 21
Alabama 23