College Football: Iowa at USC

Saturday in the Coliseum brings one of the more nuanced Big Ten handicaps of the season. Iowa comes off a gut-punch loss to Oregon and now flies west to face a USC offense that can score in bunches and erase deficits in a couple of snaps. The core tension is pace and explosives: USC wants stretch plays, tempo, and quick scores; Iowa wants field position, long possessions, and a fourth-quarter fistfight.

From a matchup lens, USC’s edge is at the skill spots—multiple receivers who win early in routes and stress leverage. If the Trojans protect on first down, they unlock shot plays and RPOs that put linebackers in conflict. Iowa’s counter is the usual: structure and physicality. The Hawkeyes tackle, keep a lid on explosives, and shorten the game by winning on special teams and third-and-short.

In the trenches, Iowa’s offensive line is a real lever. They can run downhill at a USC front that has been vulnerable to double teams and gap runs. If Iowa stays on schedule, they can control snap counts and keep the Trojans watching from the sideline. Flip side: if USC races to a double-digit lead, Iowa is forced off script and the math tilts heavily toward the home team.

Situationally, watch red-zone efficiency (USC TDs vs. Iowa FGs), explosive differential, and hidden yards on punts and kickoffs. A rare chance of L.A. rain would aid Iowa—lowering total plays, greasing the ball, and muting USC’s speed advantage. Call it strength-on-strength early; whoever wins first down dictates the fourth quarter.

Pick: (assuming relatively dry conditions)
Iowa 16
USC 27