Are the Seahawks Great?
The 2025 Seahawks are forcing a recalibration. By analytic grades—EPA/play margin, success rate differential, and drive efficiency—Seattle profiles like an all-timer. A +103 point differential backs that up, and the micro pieces fit: Sam Darnold in true MVP form, Jaxon Smith-Njigba leading the league in receiving, a steady run game with Kenneth Walker, and a defense that wins early downs and the red zone. Betting markets lagged but are catching up: +750 to win the Super Bowl, with Lions/Chiefs/Eagles shorter and the Rams roughly even.
Is this real or a heater? Signals to watch:
Strength of schedule/quarterback slate. If the EPA gap persists against top-10 offenses, it’s sustainable.
Turnover luck vs. creation. Strip-sacks and contested-catch picks regress; pressure-and-coverage driven takeaways hold.
Red-zone TD rate. Elite teams finish; pretenders kick.
Injury load. Continuity on the OL/secondary explains a lot of year-over-year jumps.
Special teams hidden yards. Quiet edges that buoy win probability in one-score games.
Mike Macdonald looks the part: clear defensive identity, opponent-specific plans, and pragmatic offense that steals free yards. Leadership shows up in penalty discipline and late-game poise—both trending elite.
Markets now price Seattle near the top; edge is thinner. This weekend in L.A. is a clean barometer. No bet for us—but if they dominate another playoff-caliber opponent, we’ll retire the “sell-high” stance.
